Bronson Arroyo traded for Wily Mo Pena

As a Red Sox fan, my initial thoughts:

1) Was reading "Faithful" last night, which is basically Steven King's blog of the 2004 season -- in printed book form. In May (when the Sox were in first), he's REALLY happy that we have Bronson as he thinks thats the guy that gives us a better rotation than the Yankees.

2) Bronson is a .500 pitcher (33-33 over his career). As Bill James reminds us, many a pennant has been lost because of the inability to find a .500 pitcher.

3) I'm on the RedSox.com e-mail list. So they just sent me this snippet:

"Pena gives the Sox some right-handed pop in the lineup. The Red Sox could afford to deal Arroyo because they still have Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, Matt Clement, David Wells and Tim Wakefield to anchor the rotation."

Schilling and Wake turn 40 this year. Wells turns 43. I sure hope those 5 guys aren't the reason we traded Bronson. I'm guessing it has more to do with Papelbon and Lester and other minor league pitchers we have some faith in.

(Our starting rotation is awfully old for a team that was unwilling to give 4 years to a 32-year-old future Hall-Of-Famer).

4) Including the recently signed Juan Gonzalez, we project about 155 homers from the right-handed hitters on our roster (Manny, Alex Gonzalez, Loretta, Lowell, Youkilis, Mohr, Kapler and Juan-Gone). Plus another 40+ from switch-hitters Crisp and Varitek. Our only signifiant power from the left side are Ortiz and Trot. So, I'm not convinced that what we really need is "some right-handed pop in the lineup".

5) Pena has great power (rated a '93' by Mogul, tied for 6th-best in the majors) but a career .248 average and .303 OBP. One of the key lessons of Moneyball was that you can't "learn" judgment of the strike zone. You have a better chance turning Youkilis into a power hitter than turning Wily Mo Pena into Ted Williams.

What's weird is I really want to like this trade. Basically because I think we've seen the top end of Bronson, but I'm hoping Wily Mo could improve. But my logic tells me otherwise.

Clay

What you have to remember about Pena is that he is only 24 years old. I think with the prospects and vets the Sox have, it was a smart move. However I don't understand that trade on the part of the Reds. Pena is 24, has always been a top prospect, and will hit for power, and probably could've yielded a top pitching prospect in return rather than Arroyo who is a good 3 or 4 starter at best. I guess the Reds just figured that pena would be another adam dunn. 40 homers but with a 230 average. This move will probably help both teams though. Arroyo is better than any Reds pitcher.....

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Originally Posted by themogulmogul

What you have to remember about Pena is that he is only 24 years old. I think with the prospects and vets the Sox have, it was a smart move. However I don't understand that trade on the part of the Reds. Pena is 24, has always been a top prospect, and will hit for power, and probably could've yielded a top pitching prospect in return rather than Arroyo who is a good 3 or 4 starter at best. I guess the Reds just figured that pena would be another adam dunn. 40 homers but with a 230 average. This move will probably help both teams though. Arroyo is better than any Reds pitcher.....

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Arroyo thou young is proven, and is rather cheap.

I think the Reds best bet might have been to shop Dunn for an ace

Sorry Clay- most of us Reds' fans are glad to see Wily-no gone. He has a sub-par work ethic, and cannot field worth a hoot. When he was slumping last year, he was asked to put in a little additional training time, which he declined doing. Great power- and was supposed to be the "future" of the Reds... with new mgmt here though, we are quickly seeing that new mgmt won't keep the Wily-no type's around long. I am praying that they also get rid of uncle milton, aka serve-up-another-homer milton...

Well, The Reds need pitching. And Bronson came rather cheap, and he's going from AL to NL, so I believe he'll improve.

Reds have good hitters in there minor leagues, but not so much pitchers that will dazzle coming up like ...lets say, the Marlins have.

I have come to the opinion that this benefits both teams. Cincinatti could be a good team in a few years if they spend more money. They remind me of texas, all the young hitting, no pitching. But Texas got Eaton and Millwood. If Cincy adds two guys like that, a reliever or two and one more solid bat they'll be another good NL Central team

Well, the Reds money isn't really what I'd call 'there' Since they've had to sign some fat contracts to players with the likes of Griffey and Dunn.

My take on this is that Pena is a more valuable player than Arroyo, but whereas Arroyo fills a need on the Reds, Pena doesn't really add anything to the Sox. So I guess the Reds could be said to win this trade, but it doesn't put them any closer to contending this year, IMO.

I'm guessing here, but it looks like the Red Sox are banking on the fact that Trot Nixon will have a lengthy breakdown again this season and want to have an outfielder with some power in place for event. Pena has been in the bigs so it would be far better to give him the regular right field spot than to hope Adam Stern can do as he did in the WBC or bring up someone from the minors if the Sox are in the running for a playoff spot. As for Arroyo, I think it's a step in the right direction for the Reds staff. He can pitch well, go for long innings, start every fifth day (maybe even fourth), pitch out of the bullpen effectively, he's been on a championship/winning team recently too. He's also good with the media and seems like a genuinely nice guy. I think Cinci fans will like him. I think that this trade works well for both teams.

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Originally Posted by hoosiergoody

Sorry Clay- most of us Reds' fans are glad to see Wily-no gone. He has a sub-par work ethic, and cannot field worth a hoot. When he was slumping last year, he was asked to put in a little additional training time, which he declined doing. Great power- and was supposed to be the "future" of the Reds... with new mgmt here though, we are quickly seeing that new mgmt won't keep the Wily-no type's around long. I am praying that they also get rid of uncle milton, aka serve-up-another-homer milton...

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What's even scarier is I get the feeling that Wily Mo is insurance for the fact that the Sox are continuing to try to get rid of Manny. Unlike Wily Mo, Manny can actually get on base.

The Red Sox got swept in the 2005 ALDS because they wouldn't re-sign Pedro -- an expensive superstar with some off-field spats. If they also get rid of Manny, we may as well throw in the towel.

Clay

I think robinhoodnik is right, not Clay. Pena is insurance for when Nixon goes down, whenever that happens THIS year (notice I didn't say IF). The Sox would have tried to move Manny regardless though I still think Theo will be smart and not take **** in exchange.

I think this trade was a good one. Even if Arroyo gets better (and I personally feel last season was the peak of his capabilities), we have way too many starters and someone had to go. The only thing that bugs me is that it wasn't Boomer.

FYI - I also read today that Papelbon will start the season in the bullpen, not in the rotation. That makes that rotation look like Schilling, Beckett, Clement, Wells and Wakefield.

Actually, you're both right.

The Red Sox have more maneuverability now. If they decide they can get rid of Manny, they have Willy Mo to fall back on. If any of there outfielders go down, they have Willy Mo to fall back on.

I think if Willy Mo can play a full season, he'll put up the numbers you'd expect in a power outfielder.

I am proably not posting anything that has not been said but this is a good move. I think relisticaly the best we could hope for out of bronson would be the return of his 2004 numbers. Basically Bronson Arroyo will always be a four or five pitcher. There is a good chance that Pena is going to become a very good player. He might strike out alot but forty homers and hundred rbis arent out of the realm of possiblity. At worst we traded bronson for a very good plantoon person for Trot.

HR Count as of 04/11/2006

Wily Mo Pena: 0 Homeruns
Bronson Arroyo: 2 Homeruns

who would've thunk it?